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Triple-I: Colorado State’s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Calls for ‘Somewhat Below Average’ Season

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MALVERN, Pa., April 9, 2025 – A somewhat below average hurricane season is projected for 2026 in the Atlantic Basin, according to a released today by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.

Led by CSU senior research scientistPhil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a non-resident scholar at the ,the CSU TC-RAMS research team forecasts 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes during the 2026 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.Ahas 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“At this point, we are anticipating a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” Klotzbach said. “Typically, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average. We consequently do not anticipate tropical Atlantic water temperatures being as strong of a hurricane-enhancing factor as they were the past few years when water temperatures were much warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic.”

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ended up an above-normal season, , as measured by the number of major hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). It included 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the. The only U.S. landfall last year was , which struck the South Carolina coast on July 6.

The most significant hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a Category 5 major hurricane in Jamaica, resulting in nearly $9 billion in damage in Jamaica and causing 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.

Preparedness is Essential

“While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental U.S., all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s start is less than two months away,” saidSean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I.

“This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected for property damage caused by either wind or water,” Kevelighan added. “That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”

Flood policies are offered through(NFIP) and dozens of private insurers. The installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds, according to the Triple-I, and can potentially generate savings on a homeowner’s insurance premium.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding arecovered under theoptional comprehensive portionof an auto insurance policy. About 75% of U.S. drivers carry comprehensive coverage, according to Triple-I.

Triple-I offers numeroushurricane season preparedness tips. These include:

  • Developing aphoto/video inventory of your possessions and your home’s exterior, which will ease the claim-filing process.
  • Preparing ahurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items, such as drinking water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights and extra batteries.
  • Creating anevacuation planwell before any storm warnings are issued.

CSU’s forecast also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026:

  • 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
  • 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
  • 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
  • 35% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

FACTS & STATISTICS

Hurricanes

Flood

CONSUMER RESOURCES

Catastrophes: Issues

Hurricane Season Checklist

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season Guide

Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

Understanding Your Deductible

Preparing an Effective Evacuation Plan

Settling Claims After a Disaster

Spotlight on Flood

Facts About Flood

Recovering from a Flood

INFOGRAPHICS

What are Hurricane Deductibles?

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

How to File a Flood Claim

Is Your Business Ready for Peak Hurricane Season?

EXTERNAL RESOURCES

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About the Information Institute (Triple-I)

Since 1960, the (Triple-I) has been the trusted voice of risk and insurance, delivering unique, data-driven insights to educate, elevate and connect consumers, industry professionals, policymakers and the media. An affiliate of , Triple-I represents a diverse membership accounting for nearly 50% of all U.S. property/casualty premiums written. Our members include mutual and stock companies, personal and commercial lines, primary insurers and reinsurers – serving regional, national and global markets. Brokers, agents, consultants, educators and other insurance industry professionals are among Triple-I’s associate members.

About The Institutes

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